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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."