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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.